April 1, 2007

Predictions And Projections VIII

Baseball Prospectus

In case Murray Chass swings by, here is BP's PECOTA-projected standings for the AL East:
             W   L   RS   RA   AVG   OBP   SLG
Red Sox 93 69 892 762 .280 .361 .464
Yankees 93 69 897 771 .280 .362 .454
Blue Jays 80 82 813 831 .271 .342 .449
Devil Rays 78 84 806 834 .275 .338 .446
Orioles 74 88 754 823 .274 .333 .423
Very close!

BP's Joe Sheehan runs down his top ten teams. The Red Sox are #6 -- there are four AL teams above them. BP staff picks are here. A quick wrap-up of the 13 ballots:

AL East: Yankees 7, Red Sox 6
Wild Card: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4
MVP: Sizemore 6, Hafner 3, Slappy 1, Manny 1, Guerrero 1, Crawford 1
CY: Santana 9, Sabathia 1, Lackey 1, Millwood 1, Verlander 1
Rookie: Matsuzaka 10, Alex Gordon 3

Matsuzaka Predictions (ranked by ERA):
 W   L  ERA    K
19 7 2.92 211
17 6 3.12 215
19 11 3.20 195
17 8 3.28 195
16 9 3.36 175
18 5 3.41 215
13 8 3.57 190
16 6 3.79 212
21 8 3.80 180
15 9 3.80 190
16 10 3.75 185
17 12 4.22 179
18 7 4.35 180
BP will offer its NL and World Series picks tomorrow.

The Hardball Times

Last year, the THT consensus picked 3 of the 6 division winners, 1 of 2 pennant winners and correctly guessed the AL Cy Young, AL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP.

15 ballots for the AL East:

1st: Yankees 9, Red Sox 6
2nd: Red Sox 8, Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3
3rd: Blue Jays 11, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, Orioles 1

Wild Card: Red Sox 7, Yankees 3, Twins 3, Blue Jays 1, Whte Sox 1
AL Pennant: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4, Angels 3, Cleveland 2, Blue Jays 1, Twins 1
World Series: Red Sox 3, Yankees 3, Mets 3, Cleveland 2, Blue Jays 1, Diamondbacks 1, Twins 1, Angels 1

MVP: Slappy 5, Hafner 3, Sizemore 2, Guerrero 2, Ortiz 1, Cano 1, Mauer 1
Cy: Santana 12, Halladay 2, Matsuzaka 1
Rookie: Alex Gordon 9, Matsuzaka 6

THT's Five Questions for the Yankees (actually 5 and 5) and Red Sox.

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